Worst of Delta Will Miss Lake Houston Area to East

At 4 AM Friday, Delta, as predicted, is headed for Louisiana. Houston will, however, feel some wind. The National Weather Service forecast for the Lake Houston Area today indicates showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 10am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. I already have .2 inches of rain in my gage. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch are possible today, says the NWS.

Friday night the chance of showers decreases to 40 percent, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

*Outer bands of Hurricane Delta are already reaching the Houston Area.*

*Houston has a 30-40% chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds, i.e., greater than 39 mph.*

*If those winds arrive, expect them between late morning and early afternoon.*

By tomorrow, Hurricane Delta should be a memory for us. Saturday will be sunny, with a high near 86. West wind 5 to 10 mph.

So what’s happening with Hurricane Delta at the moment? For those traveling south or east today, here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center.

Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect

STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER LOUISIANA

HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS

Hurricane Delta Status

At 400 AM CDT, Delta is moving toward the north near 12 mph. National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects this motion to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move inland within the hurricane warning area this evening. Maximum sustained winds approach 120 mph with higher gusts.

Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles. The estimated minimum central pressure 953 mb (28.15 inches).

Not A Good Day to Travel East

The further east you go today toward Louisiana, the more danger. The core of the hurricane will strike the Louisiana coast this evening. Hazards include:

STORM SURGE:

A combination of dangerous storm surge and high tides will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground.

Port O’Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay…1-3 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass…2-4 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA…4-7 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay…7-11 ft

Small changes in Delta could have large impacts on where the highest storm surge occurs. The deepest water will occur along the coast near and to the east of the landfall location. Large and dangerous waves will accompany surge. Stay tuned for possible changes and updates.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.

WIND:

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected within this area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas later today.

RAINFALL:

Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches.

SURF:

Swells from Delta will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Posted by Bob Rehak on 10/9/2020 based on data from NWS and NHC

1137 Days after Hurricane Harvey and 386 after Imelda